Moody’s Downgrades Greece
The euro fell to a twelve month low against the dollar after Moody’s Investors Service cut Greece’s rating for the second time this year. After the downgrade the euro fell to $1.3260 the lowest since May 2009. Moody’s cut Greece’s rating to A3 and indicated further downgrades are possible unless Greece manages to calm markets. Moody’s also said that Greece’s debt figures will likely be higher than previously thought. Moody’s Senior Analyst for Greece Sarah Carlson stated, “It is unlikely that the rating will remain at A3, unless the government’s actions can restore confidence in the markets and counteract the prevailing headwinds of high interest rates and low growth that could ultimately undermine the government’s ability to sustainably cut debt levels.” Prime Minister George Papandreou has spent seven hours in talks with finance ministers on how to address the escalating crisis. Nick Kounis of Fortis stated, “It looks like a terrible situation just got worse.” The austerity measures have caused social unrest throughout Greece. Tens of thousands of Greek public workers including nurses and teachers staged a one day strike to protest the austerity measures. Over 10,000 government workers and students protested to Parliament saying that the Athens government should resist pressure for more spending cuts.
EU Officials Revising Original Debt to GDP Figures
The Athens government posted debts of 32.34 billion euros which equals 13.6% of GDP, higher than the 12.7% posted earlier. The government also said that the deficit may have to be revised again due to concerns about Greece’s accounting procedures and uncertainty about the quality of data from the government. Earlier in the year EU and Greek government officials set a target of 8.7% of GDP but now officials on both sides appear to be backing away from the original target. European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj stated, “The target for 2010 is a four percentage point reduction of the deficit. We did not refer to the starting point or the arrival figure, only the reduction effort. Greece is on track to meet the target for 2010; that is what counts.”
Inaccuracies in Greek Data
Financial markets were hit by the new target revision because of inaccuracies in Greek data and many believe that the inaccuracies were deliberate and politically motivated. The inaccuracies have prompted anger among investors and other EU partners. Giada Giani, a Citigroup economist, stated, “What concerns me is the general uncertainty about the Greek official figures. This affects market perception about Greece …that one can’t rely on the Greek statistics and that the deficit is revised up and up and up.”
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Markets Nervous Over Record Spreads
The euro surrendered earlier gains on Wednesday as Greek bond spreads reached record levels. The euro hit a twelve day low against the US dollar and bond spreads rose to over 500 basis points. Most economists believe that Greece will ask the EU and the IMF for aid in the near future. Germany’s economy minister said that IMF aid could total 12 billion euros but added that the EU and the IMF should wait to see if recently imposed austerity measures are effective. Paul Robson of RBS stated, “The FX market is nervous about widening sovereign spreads. The German minister’s comments on Greece look to be driving it.” Many economists now say that the European Central Bank will not start to raise rates until next year as debt ridden nations including Greece, Portugal and Spain struggle to contain massive debt. Euro Zone debt problems could also limit growth for the region. Many now believe that the US Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates as early as November. Chris Loong of State Street in Sydney stated, “This year, the market will focus on the different growth rates between Europe and the rest of the world, particularly North America and Asia, and that will weigh on the euro. Austerity packages and commitments by Greece and other European nations to tighten their belts could mean lower growth prospects.”
Greece’s Austerity Measures Fail to Convince Investors
So far this year the euro has fallen 6.3% against the dollar and last traded at $1.3422. A survey of 42 financial institutions by Bloomberg predicts that the euro will trade at $1.35 by June and will fall to $1.32 by the end of the year. The euro has fallen against most major currencies as Greece struggles to finance its debt. The government of Prime Minister George Papandreou has cut spending and wages and has raised taxes but these efforts have failed to convince investors as borrowing costs continue to hamper efforts to get the nation’s debt under control. The International Monetary Fund has warned that rising public debt has replaced financial industry stress as the biggest threat to global recovery and puts the world economy at risk.
Loonie Above Parity With US Dollar
The news was not all bad-The Canadian dollar rose above parity with the US dollar and traded at C$0.9931 to the U.S. dollar. The Loonie extended gains after the Bank of Canada signaled that a rate hike may take place in June. Adam Cole of RBC Capital Markets stated, “The Canadian dollar is rallying after the BoC dropped its conditional commitment not to move on rates. We have a near-term target versus the U.S. dollar of C$0.9800 and expect that to be reached pretty quickly.”
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Chinese Shares Post Biggest Percentage Loss Since 2009
The yen fell against most major currencies as positive US earnings data and a selloff in growth currencies slowed. The Aussie dollar gained after Australian central bank minutes raised expectations for more rate hikes. The euro gained on the dollar after Germany’s ZEW economic report exceeded expectations. Shares on Wall Street rose despite concerns about recent fraud charges against Goldman Sachs. The fraud charges prompted concerns about more and stricter regulation of Wall Street. High yielding currencies recent gains were pared after Chinese shares were hit with the biggest percentage loss since August 2009. An unnamed forex trader at a UK bank said, “There seems to be a pause in yen buy-backs for now on Wall Street and good earnings results, but I am not sure whether the yen’s rise on risk-off moves is over yet.” The greenback gained 0.3% vs. the yen trading at 92.64 yen. The euro extended recent gains against the yen and rose 0.3% to 124.94 yen. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s April policy meeting said that given an expected boom in Australia’s terms of trade it would not be prudent to delay a rate hike.
ECB Member Weber Says Greece May Need 80 Billion Euros
There was more bad news for the euro after European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber told German legislators that Greece may require loans of up to 80 billion euros ($111.8 billion USD) to prevent default. Weber also told the lawmakers that the Greek situation is worsening and that “the numbers are changing all the time.” The German newspaper Bild reported that Weber said that the amount of aid required by Greece may not be known until much later. Earlier EU leaders agreed to a 30 billion euro loan program for Greece but the loan agreement did not calm market fears about Greece’s economic situation. The premium investors are demanding to hold Greek debt vs. German benchmarks rose to a record 482 basis points on Monday. Germany’s deputy finance minister, Joerg Asmussen said that the EU will provide pooled loans and that buying Greek bonds is out of the question. Asmussen stated, “If it comes to financial aid for Greece, then the path will be a pooled credit, which in the case of Germany would be done via (state bank) KfW. The solution of buying Greek bonds is off the table.”
Ash Cloud Hammers Travel Industry
To add to the euro zone’s woes the ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano eruption has disrupted air travel and is affecting the euro zone economy. It has been estimated that airlines are losing about $200 million dollars per day. Travel disruptions forced the Athens government to reschedule talks with EU, ECB and IMF officials.
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Dollar, Yen Gain on Risk Aversion
On Monday the US dollar and the yen advanced as investors sought the safety of the dollar and yen. Investors remain concerned about the delayed Greek talks with the EU and the IMF and fraud charges brought against Goldman Sachs. Greek officials were supposed to meet with representatives of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary fund but the talks have been delayed by grounded flights due to the volcanic eruption in Iceland which has disrupted air traffic across Europe. Last Friday the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged Goldman Sachs with fraud related to a debt product tied to subprime mortgages. Omer Esiner of Travelex Global Business Payments stated, “This is clearly a risk-averse market, with investors in a flight to dollar and yen assets. The main triggers are still the SEC’s bombshell on Goldman Sachs and the continued uncertainty about the Greek debt situation, specifically as to how any aid package would be applied or whether Germany would veto the package.”
Spreads at Record Levels
The premium investors are demanding to hold Greek debt rose to record levels due to uncertainties about details of the EU/IMF loan mechanism agreed upon earlier in the month. On Monday the euro was down 0.3% vs. the dollar trading at $1.3456 in New York and against the yen fell 0.3% to 124.10 yen. Analysts see risk aversion as dominant. Boris Schlossberg of GFT stated, “It seems like we are reversing some of the risk aversion trades from this morning as people get more comfortable with the Goldman news. Clearly, there is a higher degree of caution. But there has been no additional bad news on Goldman. So for now, investors are in a ’see-no-evil, hear-no-evil’ kind of mode.”
Iceland Volcano Disrupts European Business Events
The volcanic eruption in Iceland has crippled European air travel and is has disrupted several European business events. Talks between Greece and the EU and IMF have been delayed further adding to investor concerns about Greece’s debt crisis. The talks have been rescheduled for April 21st in Athens. Lost airline revenues are now estimated at about $300 million per day. Bundesbank President Axel Weber told German legislators that Greece may need more than the 30 billion euros ($40 billionUSD) promised by the EU. The IMF has pledged another 15 billion Euros to aid Greece.
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Greece Calls For EU/IMF Talks
On Thursday Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou asked for talks with the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn stated, “It’s a matter of preparing a joint program of conditionality and financing if needed and if required.” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that the EU and the IMF need to cooperate to “restructure these deficits” in Greece. The IMF may require Greece to cut spending on public employees and cut pension payments. Many believe that further austerity will cause unrest in Greece where earlier measures sparked riots and demonstrations throughout the country. Giada Giani of Citigroup said that the Athens meeting “is an important step as it links the availability of external financing to Greece implementing a set of structural reforms. These probably will go well beyond the tightening measures that Greece has put in place up to now, which may help to reduce the deficit for 2010 but do little to tackle Greece’s long-term solvency issues.”
Austerity Measures Unpopular
According to a recent poll two thirds of Greeks disapprove of the way the government has handled the crisis and Greece’s largest union promised “dynamic” resistance to pension cuts. Papandreou told Parliament that the austerity measures “will hurt, but think what would have happened with bankruptcy.” The Athens government has cut spending, raised taxes and has cut wages in an attempt to reduce the nation’s deficit from 12.9% of GDP to 8.7% this year. German Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a radio interview, “We agree Greece should now also undertake the required preparations with the International Monetary Fund.” Schaeuble also said that while the Greek restructuring plan “isn’t really on track, you will always have new speculation in the financial markets.” Political opposition to any aid package for Greece is widespread in Germany. The EU is attempting to prevent the first default of an EU nation which would damage the credibility of the Euro Zone and its multi nation currency.
Finance Ministers to Address EU Problems
At this weekend’s meeting of European finance ministers and central bank governors from the 27 EU member nations taking place in Madrid the Euro Zone leaders will try to close budget gaps in member states which have been hard hit by the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930’s. ECB executive board member Juergen Stark said in Washington, “I am particularly concerned about the dramatic deterioration in public finances, which will require very ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts in the years to come.”
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ECB Official says Greek Aid Package ‘Vital Step’
In Japan European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said that the recent loan EU/IMF loan agreement is a vital step in addressing Greece’s debt crisis. He also dismissed speculation that the deal may prompt a euro zone breakup or that Greece would default. Smaghi stated, “This announcement makes it clear what the euro area authorities have said since many months, i.e. that a scenario of default and exit from the euro area, which some market participants and observers had toyed with, was simply absurd.” He also addressed market concerns saying, “Vague statements that some event, such as a default, will not occur, are not sufficient to calm the markets. Concrete actions are needed. This was not fully understood over the last few months. This experience should now be used to create a more efficient decision making process within the euro area aimed in particular at preventing similar situations from occurring in the future and eventually at solving them more efficiently.”
Financial Industry Controls Needed
He also said that high borrowing costs and the premium demanded by speculators will increase the chance of a default. Smaghi also called for controls on the financial industry and said, “Given the obvious negative impact of an excessively large financial industry, we keep asking ourselves whether limits should be imposed on the size of the financial sector itself … The answer to this question is yes. A financial sector which goes beyond a certain threshold (or breaking point) can harm the economy and society as a whole.”
Greece Calls For Talks
Recent news reports indicate that Greece has called for talks with the EU, ECB and the IMF which many believe is a first step in asking for outside help. Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou called for talks on “a multi-year program of economic policies.” The IMF said it will send representatives to Athens on Monday and will be joined by representatives from the ECB and the European Commission. Officials from Greece and the IMF said that Greece has not yet decided whether to activate a loan mechanism agreed upon last Sunday by EU finance ministers. Under the agreement the EU would loan Greece 30 billion Euros and the IMF would provide more money. Many believe that the talks are a first step in activating the loan mechanism. Ben May of Capital Economics stated, “The fact that they are asking for clarification on various issues about the mechanism suggests that they are seriously considering activating the package.”
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No Indication of Fed Rate Hike
The US dollar pulled back from earlier gains vs. the yen and the euro. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave no indication that the Fed would raise rates anytime soon. Bernanke testified before the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday. Bernanke made no direct references to the Fed’s interest rate outlook which was disappointing to investors. Ten year treasury notes took a hit after Bernanke said that US economic expansion would remain moderate and a Fed survey showed that the US economy grew ‘somewhat’ during March. Bernanke told congress “The Federal Open Market Committee has stated clearly that they currently anticipate that very low, extremely low rates will be needed for an extended period. If those conditions cease to hold and we anticipate changes in the outlook then of course we will respond to that.” Bernanke also told congress that inflation remains subdued and that long term inflation expectations are contained. Bernanke warned that the risk of economic contraction was “not negligible” and that growth is hampered by construction sector weakness and strained state and city budgets.
Bernanke Addresses Chinese Yuan
Bernanke said that layoffs are slowing and that employment ‘has turned up’ and many believe Bernanke’s remarks expressed caution about economic recovery in the world’s largest economy. Bernanke was asked whether the Chinese Yuan, which many believe is undervalued, helped spark the global recession and Bernanke said it was one of many causative factors. Regarding the Yuan Bernanke stated, “I think it would be good for the Chinese to allow more flexibility in their exchange rate. It would give them more autonomy in their monetary policy so they could address inflation and bubbles within their own economy.” Some legislators focused on consumer protection issues and while Bernanke admitted some mistakes he said that he is not in favor of the Fed having those added duties. Bernanke stated, “I can understand why some advocates would want to have a purely independent agency. While we have acknowledged being late on these issues, I do believe we should receive credit for a much better performance in recent years.”
Recovery ‘Broadening but Slow’ Says Fed
Fed presidents and officials will meet April 27-28 and have been debating how and when to withdraw various stimulus measures put in place to address the worst recession since the Great Depression. A rise in Fed rates is widely seen as positive for the dollar. The Fed’s Beige Book business survey says that the economic recovery is broadening but slow. The Fed report states, “Overall economic activity increased somewhat since the last report across all Federal Reserve Districts except St. Louis, which reported ’softened’ economic conditions.”
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Increased Confidence for US Recovery
During the recent recession the US dollar has largely traded on risk appetite and aversion. When the news was bad the dollar usually gained due to its status as a safe haven currency. Recently it appears that the link between the dollar and risk assets such as stocks and commodities is weakening. This will allow the dollar to benefit from favorable US economic data. The weakening of the link between the dollar and risk assets means increased investor confidence in US economic recovery and the perception that the Federal Reserve will be the first to raise rates. During the past year positive US economic data has usually led to dollar selling in favor of riskier assets. Bad economic news has usually prompted investors to seek the safe haven offered by the dollar and the Japanese yen.
Dollar Trading on Fundamentals
The relationship between the dollar and risk is rapidly changing. Last Friday’s US jobs report caused the dollar to gain and speculation that the Fed will raise rates to increase. Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman stated, “Our hypothesis is that the risk-on/risk-off matrix that seemed to dominate market development during much of the crisis is breaking down,. We suspect it is being replaced by a greater emphasis on country specific macro-economic developments.” Reuters News Agency reported that the correlation between the S&P 500 index and the dollar Index has fallen to zero during the past month and reflects a new dynamic where the dollar can gain independent of changes in risk appetite or aversion.
Euro Sentiment Remains Negative
The change in the dollar’s dynamics is taking place as the Euro Zone suffers from the Greek debt crisis. Although last weekend’s teleconference of EU finance ministers caused a slight euro rally most investors remain euro negative. Japan’s flat economy has pressured the Bank of Japan to keep its loose monetary policies. Phyllis Reed of Kleinwort Benson stated, “We’ve seen the U.S. economy continue to recover and it looks probably the most healthy economy in the developed world and that’s helping to support the dollar. We have problems everywhere else.” Historically the dollar and commodities have a negative relationship and a weak dollar creates demand for dollar denominated assets. For months investors have speculated about a Fed rate hike but the Fed has repeatedly said that rates will remain low for an ‘extended period.’ Many investors believe that if US recovery continues at its present pace the Fed will raise rates sooner than expected. Swiss bank “We’ve seen the U.S. economy continue to recover and it looks probably the most healthy economy in the developed world and that’s helping to support the dollar. We have problems everywhere else,” said in a client note, “The dollar may be in a bit of a holding pattern near-term, not declining materially on increased risk sentiment as better economic data will support a Fed rate hike. And not strengthening materially either until more certainty in the timing of the initial Fed rate hike emerges.”
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Fitch’s Downgrades Greece
The euro fell near an eleven month low against the US dollar last week as increasing yields on Greek debt prompted speculation among investors that Greece may turn to the EU for help or would possibly default. Greece received another blow from Fitch’s ratings agency which downgraded Greece to BBB-, just above ‘junk’ status. Fitch’s outlook for Greece remains negative. The euro trimmed some of last week’s losses after the EU said it stands ready to help the troubled Athens government. Richard Franulovich of Westpac Banking Corp stated, “The market had no confidence in Greece and thought default was imminent.” The premium investors are demanding to purchase Greek 10 year bonds vs. German bunds rose as high as 442 basis points which is the highest level since the euro was launched in 1999. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said that borrowing at current rates is unsustainable. Many believe that intervention is unavoidable. UBS AG Chief European Economist Stephane Deo said, “The recent market action means that an external intervention may be unavoidable and could happen very soon as the situation is untenable.”
Long Term Problems For Euro
On Friday European Union officials said they are ready to help Greece if necessary. EU officials in Brussels are sorting out the details of the earlier EU/IMF agreement. Some fear that the possibility of a Greek bailout will cause investors to steer clear of holding the debt of other troubled EU nations which will pressure the euro further. Win Thin of Brown Brothers Harriman & Co stated, “Bailing out Greece would take some near-term pressure off the euro, but longer term it’s not the end of it. One thing we don’t know is the amount of contagion risk. As we’ve seen in emerging-market crises, it rarely stops at one country. There’s Portugal, Spain — all these other countries in the same queue as Greece.”
EU Finance Ministers to Hold Teleconference Sunday
On Sunday Euro zone finance ministers will hold talks to discuss the details of how a safety net for Greece will work. A lack of clarity in the earlier EU/IMF agreement has caused investor uncertainty. Recently Greece’s Prime Minister said the Athens government will use the safety net if necessary. In addition to the finance ministers the European Central Bank and the European Commission will also participate in the talks. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou was quoted as saying, “The question remains whether this mechanism will convince markets just as a gun on the table. If it does not convince them, it is a mechanism that is there to be used.” The effects of the talks will likely influence Monday’s trading.
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Euro at Two Week Low vs. Dollar
The euro traded near a two week low vs. the dollar even after European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said that default was “not an issue” for Greece. The euro had made slight gains earlier after Greece reported that the nation’s first quarter deficit fell. Vassili Serebriakov of Wells Fargo & Co. in New York stated, “Comments from Trichet had an impact on the euro. While the situation in Greece is not getting much better, I don’t see much scope for it to get worse. We’re seeing no immediate reasons for a break to the downside.” Trichet said that Greece will not default and will not need aid from the EU. The ECB left rates at 1%. The already troubled euro has been pressured by a news report that said the Athens government wanted to renegotiate last month’s EU IMF agreement.
Bond Spreads Pressure Greece
The Athens government denied the report and Tuesday the spread between Greek and German bonds was in excess of 4%, the largest since the Euro’s launch. Euro sentiment was further damaged after a news report that said that Greek banks have asked permission to access funds from a Greek aid package agreed to in 2008. Stuart Bennett of Credit Agricole said, “Renewed uncertainty over Greece is hurting an already jittery euro. Even though the market is already heavily short of euro, there is still downside risk.”Greek debt concerns and concerns that the crisis could spread to other EU nations have caused the euro to decline about 10% from January’s high of $1.4582. Also damaging the euro is a dearth of details about last month’s EU IMF agreement. Fitch rating agency senior Greece analyst Chris Pryce said that the Greek government’s only choice is to ask for help. Pryce stated, “Despite everything the EU and the euro zone have done there is still a lack of clarity (and) confusion about what they intend to do, when they intend do it and how much would be involved, It is now up to the Greek government to go publicly to the EU and IMF and ask for the cash and the support.”
Greece Prefers Market Based Solutions
The Athens government has promised to cut Greece’s debt to 8.7% of Gross Domestic Product this year but remains cautious that budget cuts could spark social unrest. Greece has been plagued by strikes, protests and riots since last year. At the present time the Athens government says it prefers to borrow from markets and will use the EU IMF agreement as a last resort. Government spokesman George Petalotis stated, “For the time being it is not necessary to activate the aid mechanism. The EU/IMF safety net is there to guarantee that Greece is not alone.”
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